MATH6011 Forecasting Assignment 2006
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The assignment must be handed in by 2pm
Wednesday 22nd March 2006 to the Maths School Office. Attach a green
submission form to your work making sure you have entered your name and
registration number. An extension, for bona fide reasons, may be allowed by
prior agreement, but only well before the deadline. Computer crashes or file
losses a day or two before the deadline will not be an acceptable reason. Components of the project will receive
different weightings in producing your final mark. The weightings are Main report: Choice of Presentational
Style 20, Clarity 30, Logical Development and Relevance 25, Quality of
Argument Presented 25. Technical Report: Layout and Style 20,
Appraisal and Preparation of the Data Prior to Technical Analysis 20,
Technical Analysis and Content 35, Functionality of the spreadsheet itself
and Initiative Shown 25. |
1. Background
You have been employed as a consultant to
prepare a report for an environmental pressure Group ‘Earth First’. The report
is to forecast the behaviour of a number of indicators up to the end of 2010.
Data on these statistics is available on the MATH6011 Webpage.
InternationalAirPassengerNumbers
You are asked to take each series
separately and forecast their behaviour until the end of 2010.
You are also asked to forecast the Global
Surface Mean Temperature until the end of 2010, using the last five indices as
explanatory variables in a multivariate regression model.
Develop a multiple regression model and
report on whether you think the model is satisfactory or not.
As so often happens in the real world,
the data sets are of different length. You will have to use your own judgement
in inspecting and preparing the data before carrying out any technical
analysis.
2. What You Must
Produce
2.1 The Main Report
For the main report, imagine that you have
to make a short (twenty minute) presentation in a meeting with members of ‘Earth
First’. Your report should describe the forecasts for each series. You should
also comment on any patterns you see.
You must produce copies on paper of any
displays you would use (e.g. overhead-projector slides, Powerpoint
presentations) together with any written material you would hand to the
audience. You will NOT actually have to
make the presentation. Any slides do NOT
have to be produced on transparencies or film; paper copies are all that are
required, though you should make it clear which medium you would be using.
There is no need to use colour for any hard-copy, but you may do so if you
wish.
The presentation material will
be judged on its clarity, relevance, choice of presentational techniques, and
quality of argument used.
2.2 Technical Report
You must also produce a separate
technical report. This report should
give brief details of the analysis and describe why the analysis was performed
in the way it was. It should also
include a description of how the analysis was implemented on a spreadsheet.
The
report must be produced on paper, but you should also submit a disk. This should contain the spreadsheet(s) used
for the analysis. A very brief
description of how to use the spreadsheet should be given.
Your
report will be marked on its layout and style, the choice and preparation of
data used, quality of technical analysis, the functionality of the spreadsheet
itself and any initiative shown. Many members of ‘Earth First’ are technically
competent, but they are busy people, so do not make your technical discussion
overlong!
If there is any further
information you believe to be essential, make a realistic assumption and
explain clearly what you have done.
Initiative
will be rewarded.
Russell Cheng, Feb
2006 MATH6011cw06.doc