Holt'sLinExpSmthg       Holt'sLinExpSmthg       Holt'sLinExpSmthg      
AlphaLES 1.510529 AlphaLES 1.406579 AlphaLES 0.4572
Data Analysed       BetaLES 0.002227 MSE(LES) 0.013315 BetaLES -0.02608 MSE(LES) 0.100997 BetaLES -0.02673 MSE(LES) 0.129949
t DEOM AAA 3to4 D3to4 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 AAA Lt bt Ft Et Et*Et 3to4 Lt bt Ft Et Et*Et D3to4 Lt bt Ft Et Et*Et
1 1.146 5.94 5.31 0.29 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.94 5.94 0       5.31 5.31 0       0.29 0.29 0      
2 -2.443 6 5.6 -0.11 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6.030632 0.000202 5.94 0.06 0.0036 5.6 5.717908 -0.01064 5.31 0.29 0.0841 -0.11 0.10712 0.004888 0.29 -0.4 0.16
3 1.497 6.08 5.49 0.31 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.08 6.105101 0.000367 6.030834 0.049166 0.002417 5.49 5.401662 -0.00267 5.707271 -0.21727 0.047207 0.31 0.20253 0.002469 0.112008 0.197992 0.039201
4 -0.132 6.17 5.8 -0.19 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.17 6.202945 0.000584 6.105468 0.064532 0.004164 5.8 5.96304 -0.01738 5.398995 0.401005 0.160805 -0.19 0.024406 0.007296 0.204999 -0.395 0.156024
5 2.025 6.14 5.61 -0.33 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.14 6.107566 0.000371 6.20353 -0.06353 0.004036 5.61 5.473526 -0.00506 5.945664 -0.33566 0.11267 -0.33 -0.13367 0.011716 0.031701 -0.3617 0.130828
6 0.737 6.09 5.28 -0.09 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6.09 6.080843 0.00031 6.107937 -0.01794 0.000322 5.28 5.203375 0.001848 5.468462 -0.18846 0.035518 -0.09 -0.10734 0.011326 -0.12195 0.031952 0.001021
7 -1.023 5.87 5.19 -0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5.87 5.7622 -0.0004 6.081153 -0.21115 0.044586 5.19 5.18381 0.002407 5.205224 -0.01522 0.000232 -0.01 -0.05669 0.010274 -0.09602 0.086018 0.007399
8 -0.956 5.84 5.18 0.12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5.84 5.879923 -0.00014 5.7618 0.0782 0.006115 5.18 5.177472 0.002635 5.186217 -0.00622 3.87E-05 0.12 0.029669 0.008241 -0.04642 0.166416 0.027694
9 0.385 5.99 5.3 -0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5.99 6.046267 0.000234 5.879786 0.110214 0.012147 5.3 5.348746 -0.00176 5.180107 0.119893 0.014374 -0.07 -0.01143 0.00956 0.03791 -0.10791 0.011645
10 0.983 6.12 5.23 0.41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6.12 6.157523 0.000481 6.046501 0.073499 0.005402 5.23 5.182437 0.002528 5.346983 -0.11698 0.013685 0.41 0.186438 0.004526 -0.00187 0.411867 0.169634
11 5.092 6.42 5.64 -0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6.42 6.553756 0.001363 6.158004 0.261996 0.068642 5.64 5.825008 -0.01416 5.184965 0.455035 0.207057 -0.02 0.094512 0.007104 0.190965 -0.21096 0.044506
12 3.649 6.48 5.62 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.48 6.44165 0.00111 6.555119 -0.07512 0.005643 5.62 5.542406 -0.00716 5.810845 -0.19085 0.036422 0.05 0.078017 0.007735 0.101616 -0.05162 0.002664
13 2.703 6.52 5.67 0.16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.52 6.559433 0.00137 6.44276 0.07724 0.005966 5.67 5.724789 -0.01211 5.535244 0.134756 0.018159 0.16 0.119698 0.006828 0.085752 0.074248 0.005513
14 -0.271 6.64 5.83 -0.3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.64 6.680432 0.001636 6.560803 0.079197 0.006272 5.83 5.877698 -0.01641 5.712684 0.117316 0.013763 -0.3 -0.06848 0.01204 0.126526 -0.42653 0.181924
15 2.055 6.75 5.53 0.23 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.75 6.784681 0.001865 6.682068 0.067932 0.004615 5.53 5.395304 -0.00426 5.86129 -0.33129 0.109753 0.23 0.07452 0.00854 -0.05644 0.286441 0.082049
16 -0.714 6.73 5.76 0.33 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.73 6.701132 0.001675 6.786546 -0.05655 0.003197 5.76 5.910008 -0.01779 5.391048 0.368952 0.136126 0.33 0.19596 0.005522 0.083059 0.246941 0.06098
17 0.653 6.89 6.09 0.43 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.89 6.985568 0.002304 6.702806 0.187194 0.035041 6.09 6.170414 -0.02504 5.892218 0.197782 0.039118 0.43 0.305961 0.002729 0.201482 0.228518 0.05222
18 -0.034 6.98 6.52 0.16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6.98 6.975981 0.002278 6.987872 -0.00787 6.2E-05 6.52 6.672317 -0.03879 6.145369 0.374631 0.140348 0.16 0.240709 0.004546 0.30869 -0.14869 0.022109
19 -1.058 6.98 6.68 0.39 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6.98 6.980889 0.002284 6.978259 0.001741 3.03E-06 6.68 6.698893 -0.04049 6.633531 0.046469 0.002159 0.39 0.311432 0.002777 0.245255 0.144745 0.020951
20 -2.051 7.1 7.07 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7.1 7.159644 0.002677 6.983173 0.116827 0.013649 7.07 7.237347 -0.05559 6.658403 0.411597 0.169412 0.05 0.193413 0.006006 0.31421 -0.26421 0.069807
21 1.451 7.19 7.12 0.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7.19 7.204131 0.00277 7.162321 0.027679 0.000766 7.12 7.09489 -0.05332 7.181759 -0.06176 0.003814 0.13 0.167681 0.006855 0.19942 -0.06942 0.004819
22 -0.989 7.29 7.25 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7.29 7.332424 0.00305 7.206901 0.083099 0.006905 7.25 7.334744 -0.06097 7.041568 0.208432 0.043444 0.6 0.369058 0.001655 0.174536 0.425464 0.18102
23 1.358 7.65 7.85 0.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7.65 7.810575 0.004108 7.335474 0.314526 0.098927 7.85 8.08428 -0.0821 7.273777 0.576223 0.332033 0.17 0.278947 0.004108 0.370713 -0.20071 0.040286
24 0.746 7.75 8.02 -0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.75 7.716978 0.00389 7.814682 -0.06468 0.004184 8.02 8.027246 -0.08276 8.002177 0.017823 0.000318 -0.15 0.085062 0.0094 0.283055 -0.43306 0.187537
25 1.855 7.72 7.87 -0.73 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.72 7.719557 0.003887 7.720868 -0.00087 7.53E-07 7.87 7.839714 -0.08002 7.94449 -0.07449 0.005549 -0.73 -0.28248 0.019476 0.094463 -0.82446 0.679739
26 -1.894 7.67 7.14 0.06 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.67 7.642715 0.003707 7.723444 -0.05344 0.002856 7.14 6.888047 -0.05729 7.75969 -0.61969 0.384015 0.06 -0.11533 0.015528 -0.26301 0.323005 0.104333
27 0.781 7.66 7.2 0.39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.66 7.666932 0.003753 7.646423 0.013577 0.000184 7.2 7.350128 -0.07084 6.830753 0.369247 0.136344 0.39 0.124137 0.009543 -0.0998 0.489799 0.239903
28 -0.161 7.89 7.59 0.15 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.89 8.001967 0.004491 7.670685 0.219315 0.048099 7.59 7.716328 -0.08224 7.27929 0.31071 0.096541 0.15 0.141141 0.009343 0.13368 0.01632 0.000266
29 2.233 8.14 7.74 -0.23 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.14 8.208177 0.00494 8.006458 0.133542 0.017834 7.74 7.78306 -0.08612 7.634093 0.105907 0.011216 -0.23 -0.02347 0.013993 0.150485 -0.38048 0.144769
30 2.425 8.21 7.51 -0.05 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8.21 8.208408 0.00493 8.213118 -0.00312 9.72E-06 7.51 7.433994 -0.07926 7.69694 -0.18694 0.034946 -0.05 -0.02801 0.014488 -0.00948 -0.04052 0.001642
31 2.169 8.05 7.46 -0.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 8.05 7.966611 0.00438 8.213338 -0.16334 0.026679 7.46 7.5028 -0.08312 7.354731 0.105269 0.011081 -0.37 -0.1765 0.018845 -0.01352 -0.35648 0.12708
32 0.982 7.94 7.09 -0.27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7.94 7.924178 0.004276 7.970991 -0.03099 0.00096 7.09 6.955961 -0.07103 7.419676 -0.32968 0.108686 -0.27 -0.20902 0.020218 -0.15766 -0.11234 0.012621
33 4.708 7.88 6.82 -0.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7.88 7.855263 0.004113 7.928454 -0.04845 0.002348 6.82 6.793601 -0.06865 6.884929 -0.06493 0.004216 -0.6 -0.3768 0.025243 -0.1888 -0.4112 0.169084
34 6.063 7.79 6.22 -0.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7.79 7.754582 0.00388 7.859376 -0.06938 0.004813 6.22 6.014697 -0.05013 6.724951 -0.50495 0.254976 -0.61 -0.46972 0.028401 -0.35156 -0.25844 0.066792
35 9.382 7.41 5.61 -0.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7.41 7.232101 0.002707 7.758461 -0.34846 0.121425 5.61 5.46584 -0.03712 5.964569 -0.35457 0.125719 -0.13 -0.29898 0.024597 -0.44132 0.311317 0.096918
36 9.304 7.18 5.48 -0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.18 7.152019 0.002523 7.234808 -0.05481 0.003004 5.48 5.500851 -0.039 5.428717 0.051283 0.00263 -0.7 -0.46898 0.029798 -0.27439 -0.42561 0.181147
37 10.69 7.15 4.78 -0.64 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.15 7.147681 0.002507 7.154542 -0.00454 2.06E-05 4.78 4.502775 -0.01399 5.461847 -0.68185 0.464915 -0.64 -0.53099 0.032252 -0.43918 -0.20082 0.040329
38 6.531 7.27 4.14 0.5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.27 7.331167 0.002911 7.150189 0.119811 0.014355 4.14 3.998193 -0.0012 4.488781 -0.34878 0.121648 0.5 -0.04212 0.020047 -0.49874 0.998742 0.997485
39 7.873 7.37 4.64 0.88 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.37 7.388339 0.003031 7.334078 0.035922 0.00129 4.64 4.901434 -0.02479 3.996992 0.643008 0.413459 0.88 0.390356 0.009023 -0.02207 0.902071 0.813731
40 3.882 7.54 5.52 0.43 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.54 7.615879 0.003532 7.391371 0.148629 0.022091 5.52 5.781574 -0.04838 4.876647 0.643353 0.413903 0.43 0.413379 0.008649 0.399379 0.030621 0.000938
41 4.96 7.58 5.95 0.25 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.58 7.55988 0.003399 7.619411 -0.03941 0.001553 5.95 6.038151 -0.05634 5.733189 0.216811 0.047007 0.25 0.343376 0.010751 0.422027 -0.17203 0.029593
42 1.301 7.62 6.2 -0.17 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 7.62 7.648958 0.00359 7.563278 0.056722 0.003217 6.2 6.28871 -0.06434 5.981814 0.218186 0.047605 -0.17 0.114497 0.017156 0.354127 -0.52413 0.27471
43 1.154 7.58 6.03 -0.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7.58 7.542962 0.003346 7.652548 -0.07255 0.005263 6.03 5.950973 -0.05721 6.22437 -0.19437 0.03778 -0.43 -0.12513 0.02402 0.131653 -0.56165 0.315454
44 0.116 7.48 5.6 -0.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7.48 7.446148 0.003123 7.546308 -0.06631 0.004397 5.6 5.480562 -0.04644 5.893763 -0.29376 0.086297 -0.34 -0.21033 0.026939 -0.10111 -0.23889 0.057066
45 4.928 7.35 5.26 -0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7.35 7.29932 0.002789 7.44927 -0.09927 0.009855 5.26 5.189204 -0.04005 5.434127 -0.17413 0.03032 -0.3 -0.23671 0.028364 -0.18339 -0.11661 0.013597
46 2.53 7.19 4.96 0.32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7.19 7.132766 0.002411 7.302108 -0.11211 0.012568 4.96 4.883093 -0.03311 5.149155 -0.18916 0.03578 0.32 0.033216 0.021908 -0.20834 0.528342 0.279145
47 8.425 7.19 5.28 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7.19 7.217989 0.002596 7.135177 0.054823 0.003006 5.28 5.454836 -0.04888 4.849983 0.430017 0.184914 0.09 0.071069 0.021481 0.055124 0.034876 0.001216
48 5.291 7.11 5.37 0.16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.11 7.053543 0.002224 7.220585 -0.11058 0.012229 5.37 5.355382 -0.04756 5.405953 -0.03595 0.001293 0.16 0.123388 0.020657 0.092551 0.067449 0.004549
49 5.192 7.16 5.53 0.19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.16 7.213214 0.002574 7.055767 0.104233 0.010864 5.53 5.620335 -0.05571 5.307818 0.222182 0.049365 0.19 0.165056 0.020096 0.144046 0.045954 0.002112
50 0.257 7.22 5.72 0.32 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.22 7.22215 0.002589 7.215788 0.004212 1.77E-05 5.72 5.783174 -0.06141 5.564621 0.155379 0.024143 0.32 0.246804 0.018448 0.185151 0.134849 0.018184
51 4.402 7.36 6.04 -0.38 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.36 7.429055 0.003044 7.224739 0.135261 0.018296 6.04 6.169389 -0.07309 5.721761 0.318239 0.101276 -0.38 -0.02976 0.026333 0.265252 -0.64525 0.41635
52 3.173 7.34 5.66 0.09 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.34 7.292981 0.002734 7.432098 -0.0921 0.008482 5.66 5.482608 -0.05708 6.096303 -0.4363 0.19036 0.09 0.039289 0.025191 -0.00342 0.093424 0.008728
53 5.104 7.3 5.75 0.07 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 7.302188 0.002748 7.295715 0.004285 1.84E-05 5.75 5.881924 -0.06898 5.425526 0.324474 0.105284 0.07 0.067004 0.025124 0.064481 0.005519 3.05E-05
54 2.700508 7.304936 5.81294 0.092128 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7.304936 1 5.81294 1 0.092128
55 2.18555 7.307684 5.743956 0.117252 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 7.307684 2 5.743956 2 0.117252
56 1.354563 7.310432 5.674971 0.142376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 7.310432 3 5.674971 3 0.142376
57 4.33819 7.313181 5.605987 0.1675 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 7.313181 4 5.605987 4 0.1675
58 3.885878 7.315929 5.537003 0.192624 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 7.315929 5 5.537003 5 0.192624
59 7.959415 7.318677 5.468018 0.217748 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7.318677 6 5.468018 6 0.217748
Coeffs of the Fitted Regression
-2.19831 3.298838 -2.75244 -1.73077 -0.44032 -4.51252 -1.31299 -3.1493 -1.38333 -3.03975 -3.71016 -4.69661 -1.86844 -2.47621 1.44187