|
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
Wts for 7MA |
|
0.142857143 |
0.142857 |
0.142857 |
0.142857143 |
0.142857143 |
0.142857143 |
0.142857143 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wts for 2x12MA |
|
0.041666667 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.083333 |
0.041667 |
0.999996 |
|
Orig. Data |
|
Trend-Cycle |
|
|
Yt |
7MA |
Tt = 2x12MA |
Yt-Tt |
Month |
Sj(t) |
Et=Yt-Tt-St |
Note Sj(t) values calculated in
pivot table. |
|
|
1 |
112 |
|
|
|
|
-18.5885221 |
|
See below. (G282) |
|
|
2 |
118 |
|
|
|
|
-22.69565205 |
|
|
3 |
132 |
|
|
|
|
5.471035238 |
|
|
4 |
129 |
127.8571 |
|
|
|
-3.231326905 |
|
|
5 |
121 |
133 |
|
|
|
-4.195595952 |
|
|
6 |
135 |
135.5714 |
|
|
|
23.69130867 |
|
|
7 |
148 |
133.7143 |
126.7911973 |
21.2088 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
-19.99431124 |
|
8 |
148 |
130.1429 |
127.2495317 |
20.75047 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
-17.62527252 |
|
9 |
136 |
129.7143 |
127.957867 |
8.042133 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
-3.143130143 |
|
10 |
119 |
126.8571 |
128.582863 |
-9.58286 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
6.571148714 |
|
11 |
104 |
123.7143 |
128.999525 |
-24.9995 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
16.70804914 |
|
12 |
118 |
122.7143 |
129.7495283 |
-11.7495 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
8.267568238 |
|
1 |
115 |
122.5714 |
131.249528 |
-16.2495 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
2.338994095 |
|
2 |
126 |
123.4286 |
133.082854 |
-7.08285 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
15.61279805 |
|
3 |
141 |
129.8571 |
134.916176 |
6.083824 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
0.612788762 |
|
4 |
135 |
137.2857 |
136.416163 |
-1.41616 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
1.815163905 |
|
5 |
125 |
145.1429 |
137.4161533 |
-12.4162 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
-8.220557381 |
|
6 |
149 |
149.7143 |
138.749488 |
10.25051 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
-13.44079667 |
|
7 |
170 |
148.5714 |
140.9161463 |
29.08385 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
-12.11926024 |
|
8 |
170 |
145.5714 |
143.16614 |
26.83386 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
-11.54188086 |
|
9 |
158 |
147.7143 |
145.7078037 |
12.2922 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
1.10693319 |
|
10 |
133 |
147.1429 |
148.4161227 |
-15.4161 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
0.737889048 |
|
11 |
114 |
144.2857 |
151.54111 |
-37.5411 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
4.166464143 |
|
12 |
140 |
145.4286 |
154.707769 |
-14.7078 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
5.309327571 |
|
1 |
145 |
146.1429 |
157.124433 |
-12.1244 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
6.464089095 |
|
2 |
150 |
151.7143 |
159.54109 |
-9.54109 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
13.15456205 |
|
3 |
178 |
160.8571 |
161.832743 |
16.16726 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
10.69622176 |
|
4 |
163 |
169.2857 |
164.1243927 |
-1.12439 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
2.106934238 |
|
5 |
172 |
177 |
166.6660433 |
5.333957 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
9.529552619 |
|
6 |
178 |
181.8571 |
169.082708 |
8.917292 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
-14.77401667 |
|
7 |
199 |
179.5714 |
171.2493677 |
27.75063 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
-13.45248157 |
|
8 |
199 |
177.1429 |
173.582694 |
25.41731 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
-12.95843486 |
|
9 |
184 |
176.2857 |
175.4576933 |
8.542307 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
-2.642956476 |
|
10 |
162 |
175.2857 |
176.8326833 |
-14.8327 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
1.321328381 |
|
11 |
146 |
172.5714 |
178.0410137 |
-32.041 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
9.666560476 |
|
12 |
166 |
171.7143 |
180.166012 |
-14.166 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
5.851084571 |
|
1 |
171 |
171.2857 |
183.124339 |
-12.1243 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
6.464183095 |
|
2 |
180 |
174.2857 |
186.207662 |
-6.20766 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
16.48799005 |
|
3 |
193 |
184.5714 |
189.040976 |
3.959024 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
-1.512011238 |
|
4 |
181 |
193.7143 |
191.2909603 |
-10.291 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
-7.059633429 |
|
5 |
183 |
203.8571 |
193.582612 |
-10.5826 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
-6.387016048 |
|
6 |
218 |
208 |
195.83261 |
22.16739 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
-1.523918667 |
|
7 |
230 |
207.7143 |
198.0409357 |
31.95906 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
-9.244049571 |
|
8 |
242 |
206.4286 |
199.7492637 |
42.25074 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
3.874995476 |
|
9 |
209 |
208 |
202.207596 |
6.792404 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
-4.392859143 |
|
10 |
191 |
204.8571 |
206.2492443 |
-15.2492 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
0.904767381 |
|
11 |
172 |
200 |
210.4158937 |
-38.4159 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
3.291680476 |
|
12 |
194 |
199.1429 |
213.3742233 |
-19.3742 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
0.642873238 |
|
1 |
196 |
202.8571 |
215.8325523 |
-19.8326 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
-1.244030238 |
|
2 |
196 |
208.2857 |
218.4992117 |
-22.4992 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
0.196440381 |
|
3 |
236 |
218.4286 |
220.9158573 |
15.08414 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
9.613107429 |
|
4 |
235 |
228.4286 |
222.915842 |
12.08416 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
15.3154849 |
|
5 |
229 |
239.2857 |
224.0824957 |
4.917504 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
9.113100286 |
|
6 |
243 |
245.1429 |
224.7075003 |
18.2925 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
-5.398809 |
|
7 |
264 |
241.5714 |
225.3324987 |
38.6675 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
-2.535612571 |
|
8 |
272 |
233.7143 |
225.332496 |
46.6675 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
8.291763143 |
|
9 |
237 |
229.7143 |
224.957512 |
12.04249 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
0.857224857 |
|
10 |
211 |
224.1429 |
224.582512 |
-13.5825 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
2.571499714 |
|
11 |
180 |
213.2857 |
224.4575127 |
-44.4575 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
-2.749938524 |
|
12 |
201 |
208 |
225.540849 |
-24.5408 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
-4.523752429 |
|
1 |
204 |
206.5714 |
227.9991823 |
-23.9992 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
-5.410660238 |
|
2 |
188 |
209.8571 |
230.4575057 |
-42.4575 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
-19.76185362 |
|
3 |
235 |
221.8571 |
232.2491537 |
2.750846 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
-2.720188905 |
|
4 |
227 |
236.2857 |
233.9158043 |
-6.9158 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
-3.684477429 |
|
5 |
234 |
249 |
235.6241213 |
-1.62412 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
2.571474619 |
|
6 |
264 |
259.1429 |
237.7491207 |
26.25088 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
2.559570667 |
|
7 |
302 |
258.2857 |
240.4991123 |
61.50089 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
20.29777376 |
|
8 |
293 |
254.8571 |
243.9574277 |
49.04257 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
10.66683148 |
|
9 |
259 |
254.1429 |
247.1657617 |
11.83424 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
0.64897519 |
|
10 |
229 |
251 |
250.2490817 |
-21.2491 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
-5.095069952 |
|
11 |
203 |
241.1429 |
253.49907 |
-50.4991 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
-8.791495857 |
|
12 |
229 |
237.4286 |
257.124068 |
-28.1241 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
-8.106971429 |
|
1 |
242 |
238.8571 |
261.832397 |
-19.8324 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
-1.243874905 |
|
2 |
233 |
244.7143 |
266.6657067 |
-33.6657 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
-10.97005462 |
|
3 |
267 |
260.7143 |
271.1240107 |
-4.12401 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
-9.595045905 |
|
4 |
269 |
280 |
275.2073163 |
-6.20732 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
-2.975989429 |
|
5 |
270 |
295 |
278.4989593 |
-8.49896 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
-4.303363381 |
|
6 |
315 |
306.2857 |
281.95729 |
33.04271 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
9.351401333 |
|
7 |
364 |
307.2857 |
285.7489447 |
78.25106 |
7 |
41.2031139 |
37.04794143 |
|
8 |
347 |
302.7143 |
289.332261 |
57.66774 |
8 |
38.37574086 |
19.29199814 |
|
9 |
312 |
303.8571 |
293.2489243 |
18.75108 |
9 |
11.18526314 |
7.565812524 |
|
10 |
274 |
299.4286 |
297.165575 |
-23.1656 |
10 |
-16.15401171 |
-7.011563286 |
|
11 |
237 |
287 |
300.998894 |
-63.9989 |
11 |
-41.70757414 |
-22.29131986 |
|
12 |
278 |
282.7143 |
305.4572263 |
-27.4572 |
12 |
-20.01709657 |
-7.440129762 |
278 |
|
1 |
284 |
282.8571 |
309.957223 |
-25.9572 |
1 |
-18.5885221 |
-7.368700905 |
284 |
|
2 |
277 |
289.1429 |
314.4155343 |
-37.4155 |
2 |
-22.69565205 |
-14.71988229 |
277 |
|
3 |
317 |
308.7143 |
318.6238367 |
-1.62384 |
3 |
5.471035238 |
-7.094871905 |
317 |
|
4 |
313 |
328 |
321.7488097 |
-8.74881 |
4 |
-3.231326905 |
-5.517482762 |
313 |
|
5 |
318 |
345.2857 |
324.4987867 |
-6.49879 |
5 |
-4.195595952 |
-2.303190714 |
318 |
|
6 |
374 |
356.4286 |
327.0821223 |
46.91788 |
6 |
23.69130867 |
23.226569 |
374 |
|
7 |
413 |
354.8571 |
|
|
|
|
|
413 |
|
8 |
405 |
348.8571 |
|
|
|
|
|
405 |
|
9 |
355 |
347.1429 |
|
|
|
|
|
355 |
|
10 |
306 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
306 |
|
11 |
271 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
271 |
|
12 |
306 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
306 |
|
|
324.3846154 |
|
|
|
Value |
Month |
|
To calculate the Sj(t)
values using a Pivot Table: |
|
|
|
|
21.20880267 |
7 |
|
1. Copy the Yt-Tt and
Month columns into a clear area. |
|
|
|
|
20.75046833 |
8 |
|
2. Add the Headings
(Value & Month) to identify the columns |
|
|
|
|
8.042133 |
9 |
|
3. Select Data/PivotTable |
|
|
|
|
-9.582863 |
10 |
|
4. At step 3 select
Existing worksheet. |
|
|
|
|
-24.999525 |
11 |
|
5. Enter the position of
the top left cell for the pivot table |
|
|
|
|
-11.7495283 |
12 |
|
6. Click Finish; the
Pivot Table is then created |
|
|
|
|
-16.249528 |
1 |
|
7. The pivot table form
is displayed |
|
|
|
|
-7.082854 |
2 |
|
8. Drag The
Month button onto the Row Fields position |
|
|
|
|
6.083824 |
3 |
|
9. Drag the Value button
into the main Data Fields Position |
|
|
|
|
-1.416163 |
4 |
|
10. Click the little
"i" menu button in the Pivot Table form and select Average |
|
|
|
-12.4161533 |
5 |
|
11. The Total column
gives the Sj values. |
|
|
|
|
10.250512 |
6 |
|
12 Copy these into the
Sj(t) (blue) column, starting at G12.. |
|
|
|
|
29.08385367 |
7 |
|
Average of Value |
|
|
|
26.83386 |
8 |
|
Month |
Total |
|
|
12.29219633 |
9 |
|
1 |
-18.5885221 |
|
|
-15.4161227 |
10 |
|
2 |
-22.69565205 |
|
|
-37.54111 |
11 |
|
3 |
5.471035238 |
|
|
-14.707769 |
12 |
|
4 |
-3.231326905 |
|
|
-12.124433 |
1 |
|
5 |
-4.195595952 |
|
|
-9.54109 |
2 |
|
6 |
23.69130867 |
|
|
16.167257 |
3 |
|
7 |
41.2031139 |
|
|
-1.12439267 |
4 |
|
8 |
38.37574086 |
|
|
5.333956667 |
5 |
|
9 |
11.18526314 |
|
|
8.917292 |
6 |
|
10 |
-16.15401171 |
|
|
27.75063233 |
7 |
|
11 |
-41.70757414 |
|
|
25.417306 |
8 |
|
12 |
-20.01709657 |
|
|
8.542306667 |
9 |
|
Grand Total |
-0.555276468 |
|
|
-14.8326833 |
10 |
|
|
-32.0410137 |
11 |
|
|
-14.166012 |
12 |
|
|
-12.124339 |
1 |
|
|
-6.207662 |
2 |
|
|
3.959024 |
3 |
|
|
-10.2909603 |
4 |
|
|
-10.582612 |
5 |
|
|
22.16739 |
6 |
|
|
31.95906433 |
7 |
|
|
42.25073633 |
8 |
|
|
6.792404 |
9 |
|
|
-15.2492443 |
10 |
|
|
-38.4158937 |
11 |
|
|
-19.3742233 |
12 |
|
|
-19.8325523 |
1 |
|
|
-22.4992117 |
2 |
|
|
15.08414267 |
3 |
|
|
12.084158 |
4 |
|
|
4.917504333 |
5 |
|
|
18.29249967 |
6 |
|
|
38.66750133 |
7 |
|
|
46.667504 |
8 |
|
|
12.042488 |
9 |
|
|
-13.582512 |
10 |
|
|
-44.4575127 |
11 |
|
|
-24.540849 |
12 |
|
|
-23.9991823 |
1 |
|
|
-42.4575057 |
2 |
|
|
2.750846333 |
3 |
|
|
-6.91580433 |
4 |
|
|
-1.62412133 |
5 |
|
|
26.25087933 |
6 |
|
|
61.50088767 |
7 |
|
|
49.04257233 |
8 |
|
|
11.83423833 |
9 |
|
|
-21.2490817 |
10 |
|
|
-50.49907 |
11 |
|
|
-28.124068 |
12 |
|
|
-19.832397 |
1 |
|
|
-33.6657067 |
2 |
|
|
-4.12401067 |
3 |
|
|
-6.20731633 |
4 |
|
|
-8.49895933 |
5 |
|
|
33.04271 |
6 |
|
|
78.25105533 |
7 |
|
|
57.667739 |
8 |
|
|
18.75107567 |
9 |
|
|
-23.165575 |
10 |
|
|
-63.998894 |
11 |
|
|
-27.4572263 |
12 |
|
|
-25.957223 |
1 |
|
|
-37.4155343 |
2 |
|
|
-1.62383667 |
3 |
|
|
-8.74880967 |
4 |
|
|
-6.49878667 |
5 |
|
|
46.91787767 |
6 |
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