Unit/Module profile

Unit title: Forecasting

Unit code: MA620

Unit co-ordinator: R.C.H. Cheng

Credit rating: 7 CATS Points.

Level: MSc

Any pre-requisites and/or co-requisites: MA611. MA604 useful but not required

Programmes in which the unit is core:

Aims and Unit Synopsis:

This Unit aims to:

• introduce the student to time series models and associated forecasting methods;

• show how such models and methods can be implemented on a spreadsheet to analyse time series data;

• give an appreciation of the different fields of application of time series analysis and forecasting;

• convey the value of such quantitatively based methods for solving realistic practical problems..

Learning Outcomes:

Students who complete the unit successfully should be able to:

• formulate time series models and construct Excel spreadsheet-based versions;

• use spreadsheet techniques to fit and analyse such models to data;

• appreciate both the capabilities and the limitations of such computer based techniques;

• produce well-structure assignment reports describing problem formulation and solution.

Syllabus:

Time Series Models: Decomposition, Analysis and Removal of Trends and Seasonality

Exponential Smoothing Methods: Single Exponential, Holt and Holt-Winters Methods

Simple and Multiple Regression Techniques

Box-Jenkins Methods for ARIMA models

Summary of teaching and learning methods:

Lectures and computer laboratories, private study

Reading:

Anderson, R.A., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. 1994. An Introduction to Management Science. 7th Edn, West Publishing Co.

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. 1998, Forecasting: Methods and Applications 3rd Ed., New York: Wiley.

A. Robinson, Bath University. 2002 Forecasting Notes

Gilchrist, W.G. 1976, Statistical Forecasting, New York: Wiley.

Contact hours: 12 hours

Non-contact hours: 58 hours

Total study time: 70 hours

Assessment requirements: 100% Coursework. There will be one assignment.

Date approved by Faculty Board: